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The Past And Future Of The World Economy: The Causes And Consequences of Industrial Cycles
Dan Chirot, Professor of Russian and Eurasian Studies, University of Washington
Part I: Asia in the World Series
Since the start of the Industrial Revolution the world economy has gone through a set of stages, or cycles, each defined by its leading centers, its major technologies, and its most critical political conflicts. While technologies have progressed immensely some of the same patterns have been repeated. Though most economists do not seem to believe that there have been long term more or less regular cycles, thinking in terms of repetitive and therefore somewhat predictable and explainable changes can help us better model the past and get some sense of possible futures. Until now the dominant economies have all been Western. Will this continue? Why has Asia lagged, and are contemporary developments going to fundamentally change the nature and causes of success in the world economy?
Wednesday, January 22, 2014 | 12:00 pm — 1:15 pm